More on California's 2022-2023 Housing Market Outlook

Long Beach/Southern California Real Estate • November 4, 2022

Housing affordability in Los Angeles County in 2nd Quarter of 2022 was at 16%,  Orange County at 12%, meaning these counties are in the bottom third of housing affordability in California. Lassen County stands at highest affordability rate in the state -- at 54%.

Buyer demand in the housing market is dipping below pre-pandemic markets, as shown by the dip in mortgage applications in most of 2022, compared to 2018-2021.

Housing supply constraints continue, as shown by the number of housing permits issued, plus the number of years owners stay in a home before selling, another great cause of limited inventory. The current average length of stay is 10 years, whereas in 2006 it was 5 years before selling. 

Don't expect a surge in foreclosures, California has the lowest rate of foreclosure at .6%, and most other states are under a 3% rate for foreclosures. In recent years buyers have had higher down payments, creating greater equity in their homes, and the percentage of California buyers with second mortgages has decreased from 43% in 2006 to 2.2% in 2022.

California's median home price for 2023 is predicted to reduce to $758,600 from 2022's $831,000.

Housing demand will continue to pull back as economic uncertainty and affordability challenges remain Supply shortage will still be an issue despite improvement in housing inventory in the short term Prices will soften in the next few months but should begin to stabilize in H223 Inflation will remain a threat to the economy and the market in 2023 Rates will rise further and will peak in mid - 2023 Buyers and sellers need REALTORS® even more to navigate through the market uncertainty

 Demand will continue to slow in 2023, and home prices will slow, but the type of market seen in 2009 is not predicted to occur, inflation is not predicted to abate until 2024, interest rates may continue to rise as the Fed tries to fight inflation. 

 

Thanks to CAR's Oscar Wei, Deputy Chief Economist, the source of this information at our Fall Forum.

Julia Huntsman, REALTOR, Broker | http://www.juliahuntsman.com | 562-896-2609 | California Lic. #01188996

Your Market Info

picture of house with timer next to it
By Long Beach/Southern California Real Estate December 9, 2024
Back in September, 2024, the Governor signed a bill which would prohibit a foreclosure sale for another 45 days after a listing agreement is signed, and also prohibit a foreclosure for another 45 days after a purchase agreement with a buyer is executed. This is stating the issue simply, and as stated already, certain other guidelines must be followed. Several things must be done by the mortgage servicer, including:
By Long Beach/Southern California Real Estate December 4, 2024
By Long Beach/Southern California Real Estate December 2, 2024
View towards San Pedro One of my most popular posts was on the cost of waiting to buy, posted several years ago. And it's still an important reason to make a move -- Renting vs. Buying. Waiting for better interest rates can result in long term higher costs. Renting has zero equity growth and offers no tax benefits of homeownership.It's important to watch the shifts in the local market, and stay ahead of the changes, not behind them where you're playing catch-up.There's been talk of when the interest rates will drop -- but look at the local market--in spite of interest rates dropping and then rising again, the local single family market and condo market has still risen when comparing October 2023 to October 2024.  The demand is still strong, and that's helping the overall upward surge in prices. Here's a scenario from my post back in 2009, you can substitute in current asking prices and slightly higher interest rate, but the point is still the same:Let's make an assumption that the prices may still decline 5% more before they start appreciating again. If while a buyer was waiting for the price on a $250,000 to go down 5% to $237,500, and the interest rate goes up one percent from 5.25% to 6.25%, which is entirely possible, the buyer's monthly payments will increase almost $79 per month. If you're a first time buyer (meaning you haven't owned property in the last years), look into the buyer programs offered through various banks.If you're holding back because you think interest rates will drop again, or again, just think about how you could be gaining equity, and saving on  tax deductions.  Not every home that's come on the market is selling, and reasons vary, but think again about your goals towards homeownership. Julia Huntsman, REALTOR, Broker | http://www.abodes.realestate | 562-896-2609 | California Lic. #01188996
By Long Beach/Southern California Real Estate November 20, 2024
By Long Beach/Southern California Real Estate November 6, 2024
By Long Beach/Southern California Real Estate November 5, 2024
Long Beach Sales October 2024 In October, the average sales price of a single family increased by 1.1% since one year ago, to $1,089,651.The median SFR price for October was $940,000, an increase of 4.2% from one year ago.For condos, both the median and average prices also increased, by 1.5% and 1.6% respectively, $559,000 and $619,000 respectively.  The inventory of homes for sale increased also, an encouraging sign for buyers, by 3.1%, but at a total of 270 homes for the entire city, that's not such a very large number compared to other cities in some states. Note the small print at the bottom, that the sales price showing does not account for down payment assistance or seller concessions.  Many people may not know this, but seller concessions, i.e., repairs, seller contribution to buyer costs, are noted in the MLS separately when the property closes.  So an appraiser notes these concessions and subtracts that figure for the net amount of the sale price of the property.  And, broker compensation has always been calculated into final sales figures, so knowing that amount is of significance to all parties as well.In the coming 2025 year, increased inventory, lower interest rates and a strong economy will create a more viable real estate market.  Supply and demand are always the key driving factors, so greater supply helps both buyers and sellers.If you would like to know your home value, even if you're not sure about selling, but perhaps for insurance purposes, or any other reason, just  contact me or use the property search on my website to review the market in your area.  Go to https://www.abodes.realestate/mls-property-searchJulia Huntsman, REALTOR, Broker | http://www.abodes.realestate | 562-896-2609 | California Lic. #01188996
By Long Beach/Southern California Real Estate October 21, 2024
 Seller Guide GraphicSeptember 2024 sales data in Long Beach California shows a climbing 3 year price trend using price per square foot for single family homes, an increasing number of days on the market and more homes selling under list price as over list price. Properties on the market longer than 5 weeks amounted to 65% of the listings. Price per square foot is more commonly used in commercial listings, but here it's an additional way of showing the overall price increase in single family homes.The average price of a single family home in Long Beach in September was $1,105,665 the condo average was $571,828.Yes, there are homes lower than $1,000,000, and it's even possible to use FHA financing (3.5% down payment) in the higher brackets. Please contact me if you are interested in finding out more! Or go to my website below to use the property search which has the latest information from the MLS. Julia Huntsman, REALTOR, Broker | http://www.abodes.realestate | 562-896-2609 | California Lic. #01188996
By Long Beach/Southern California Real Estate October 15, 2024
By Long Beach/Southern California Real Estate October 3, 2024
By Long Beach/Southern California Real Estate September 27, 2024
Summary of Yearly Housing Sale DataThe annual report by the REALTOR trade group was publicly reviewed last Wednesday at the Long Beach meeting at the Convention Center by CAR economist Jordan Levine. What do people want to know first? How much more will houses cost next year.Here are 3 main points from the CAR economist report for 2025:Existing, single-family home sales are forecast to total 304,400 units in 2025, an increase of 10.5 percent from 2024’s projected pace of 275,400. California’s median home price is forecast to climb 4.6 percent to $909,400 in 2025, following a projected 6.8 percent increase to $869,500 in 2024 from 2023’s $814,000. Housing affordability* is expected to remain stable at 16 percent next year after slipping to a projected 16 percent in 2024 from 17 percent in 2023.There's much more to this 2025 annual report, which can be shared on request.If you would like to discuss your home value, please feel free to contact me for conversation.  Or, try out this automated home valuation program which will also send you email updatesJulia Huntsman, REALTOR, Broker | http://www.abodes.realestate | 562-896-2609 | California Lic. #01188996
More Posts